Field notes
Working notes on forecasting craft. How to find a base rate, how to keep score, and how a board turns a hunch into a number you can defend later.
Latest
yes, your combo probably sucks
Every leg only makes it smaller.
→ P forecasting · method · probability 3 min
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The idea behind Napkinbook
Whiteboarding the way you think
2026·07·09 · 3 min
✎ 3 min -
Base rates before everything
the outside view is boring, and it wins
2026·07·02 · 2 min
s⁄t 2 min -
Reading a canvas as a forecast
your board is the receipt, not the number
2026·06·24 · 3 min
→ P 3 min -
Calibration is a practice, not a talent
score yourself, or you are just vibing
2026·06·18 · 2 min
p50 2 min
Written while forecasting with NapkinBook, a free and local-first computational whiteboard. Open a board and try it.